Archive for June, 2009
innovation system policy idea
Posted by Tim in innovation on 29 June 2009
Peter Klein just blogged about his favourite quote at the DRUID Summer Conference, from Sid Winter. One of my favourite quotes at the conference came from Peter himself, when he was discussing the three papers on eco-innovation – that people making innovation policies have to be aware of ‘the Hayek problem – can policies be formulated as general abstract rules? (to avoid winner picking)’.
I thought that this was a really good point, and certainly an important one to consider when discussing innovation systems, like I was…
the spread of academic ideas
Posted by Tim in replication on 28 June 2009
There’s an interesting post from the political blog The Monkey Cage, which describes a recent scandal with an open access academic journal. Here’s the key part of the story:
Using pseudonyms, Philip Davis and Kent Anderson, claiming to be researchers at the Center for Research in Applied Phrenology (in case you don’t recall what phrenology is, it’s the study of personality through analysis of bumps on the head — and check out the initials of the ostensible center), submitted a paper to The Open Information Science Journal . Note that I didn’t say that Davis and Anderson wrote the article. In fact, the article was written by a computer program, which cobbled together words and phrases that Davis and Anderson provided to form complex, and often bizarre, sentences. The results reported in the paper were phonies, too.
What happened? Davis and Anderson were contacted by the publisher and informed that their paper had withstood its peer review process and was therefore eligible for publication, pending receipt of $800 in fees.
This obviously says a few things about peer review, and the open access publishing system. The angle that interests me is what this says about getting ideas to spread. One of the problems that we always have is that people often have difficulties in judging quality, so they use proxies. One of the proxies that we use in academia is peer review – if an article has passed peer review, we then assume that it is of at least a minimal level of quality.
But really, this is just laziness. We often mistake the proxies we use (peer review as a reflection of quality) for the things they are actually supposed to measure (quality). I think we’d be better off if we got better at judging quality for ourselves. It takes more work, but the payoffs are substantial. And if we’re trying to get our own ideas to spread, we need to be aware that it’s not enough to just come up with something that’s better than what is already out there – we have to get the idea to spread. And this is true for a new academic model, a new product or service, or a new way of doing things. To do that, we need to understand the proxies that people use to substitute for judging quality.

(the image shows ideas spreading on twitter – it comes from this blog…)
reasons to blog
Posted by Tim in replication on 16 June 2009
I generally hate blog posts about blogging, so I guess I’ll hate this one. Mainly, I just want to share this terrific article from American Scientist. The main point of the article is that researchers learn their craft better by writing about it, specifically, by explaining their work to people that don’t work in their field. One of my old managers was almost entirely full of crap, but one thing that he repeatedly said was that if you can’t explain your work to someone that doesn’t know anything about it, then you don’t understand it yourself. There are a couple of fields that might be exceptions to this, but in the main I think this is true. So I think that’s one good reason for academics (or anyone!) to write a blog – it makes you better at communicating your ideas, and it makes it easier for these ideas to spread.
The second good reason is that writing is thinking. A lot of the time we don’t really know what we think about an idea until we write it out. Blogging is a great way to do this. Lilia Efimova has just finished a PhD looking at this, and her conclusion is that blogs are useful as ‘personal thinking space’. In my personal experience, this is very true, and another good reason to write more consistently, for either a general audience or for your peers. I’ve tried out a lot of ideas here first that I’ve ended up using as examples in lectures, and also a couple that will end up in papers at some point.
The last good reason to write all the time (and accessably) is that it helps avoid the syndrome where academics show ‘a fondness for collecting a salary and getting away with as little intellectual intercourse as possible‘. It’s a great way to engage, and I think we should all be looking for more of these.
So what are you waiting for? Start a blog now!
science comes to the search engine wars!
Posted by Tim in innovation on 15 June 2009
I found this post on the Data Mining blog, which links to a page that compares bing, yahoo & google. The idea is that you submite a search term, and then it performs the search on all three search engines, and returns the first page of each. You can then pick which results are the best, after which you can find out which results came from which search engine.
For me so far, yahoo is performing better than I expected. I haven’t used it for search in years…
In any case, it’s good to be able to test this blindly. Still, given the relative market positions, being slightly better on search results isn’t going to do bing or yahoo much good (it’s like Pepsi winning the Pepsi challenge – people aren’t choosing Coke because it tastes better!) – they still need to come up with a compelling, unique business model if they’re going to dislodge google from the top of the hill…

people building networks
Posted by Tim in book riffs, networks on 13 June 2009
I just finished reading Why the Garden Club Couldn’t Save Youngstown: The Transformation of the Rust Belt by Sean Safford. It’s a very good book. Safford compares the histories of Youngstown, Ohio and Allentown, Pennsylvania in an effort to discover why Allentown has been able to recover economically from the collapse of its primary industry (steel), while Youngstown hasn’t. He starts by tracking and comparing the social and economic histories of the two cities – which shows that differences in their social structures at the time of founding (200 years ago!) led to differences in social structures now, and that these differences explain a fair bit of their current situations. The main story is that the business elites in Youngstown formed a fairly closed circle, which was recreated across a number of social settings, while in Allentown there is much more of a history of cooperation across classes leading to effective collective action.
The story concludes with a very nice piece of network analysis, which supports this story. Safford looks at the interlocking board membership networks in both cities in 1950 and 1977 (both sample times precede instances of substantial economic change). He includes information about civic groups that are oriented around both business and community. What he finds is that in Youngstown the membership of business and community boards overlaps almost completely, while in Allentown these form two quite different networks. He concludes that this supports his earlier story – that in Youngstown the business elites faced a time of crisis and responded by mostly just talking to themselves, while in Allentown the business leaders encountered a broader range of opinion, which led to a better response to the economic changes.
This short summary obviously doesn’t do the book justice, and it’s definitely worth checking out yourself. It is a beautifully written book (even though it includes academic data, it reads like the sort of thing you could find in The New Yorker). It is also a very good example of how to put together a coherent research project, which PhD students can use as a model. The reviews of the book have been very positive. One thing that has struck me is that many people are pointing to the novelty of Safford’s use of network analysis.

While I think his combination of network analysis and more traditional sociological techniques is very well conceived and executed, I also think this is a bit of a strawman argument. There are obviously some prominent streams of network research that treat network structure as the only driver of action within the network (mostly coming from the physics-based literature). But I think that most people that are using network analysis in the social sciences (even some econophysicists!) acknowledge that agency is important, and try to take into account the impact that people and their relationships have on the formation and maintenance of networks. The fantastic work of Pip Pattison, Garry Robins and their research group is a good example of researchers that take these issues very seriously. Even in work that is more structurally based, agent-level action is taken pretty seriously – I was struck recently by parallel findings concerning the interplay between network structure and individual attributes in research by Andrew Stephen and Oliver Toubia (see their paper Explaining the Power-Law Degree Distribution in a Social Commerce Network) and some of my findings concerning the international trade network (while that particular piece of research doesn’t have much room for agency, the point is that the interplay between structure and actor is there, which is something I’m taking very seriously in my current work). And in our research group, Sam MacAulay, John Chen and Marco Fahmi are all doing studies that take the human side of networks very much into account.
While that angle isn’t unique, this doesn’t take away from the value of Safford’s book. It is a very well thought out piece of research, and he tells the story really nicely. It’s definitely worth a read.
the singularity & innovation
Posted by Tim in innovation on 10 June 2009
Simple post today. Watch this 8 minute talk:
And then answer three simple questions:
- What opportunities does this scenario provide?
- And what are the threats?
- Finally, what can I do about these right now?
the best data visualisation around
The data from Hans Rosling & gapminder.org is finally available to have a play with yourself! (go to the gapminder site and click the link that says ‘gapminder world’)
First off, if you haven’t seen Rosling’s first TED talk, you should watch this first:
The basic idea is that you can chart a whole range of data over time, including stats on health, the economy, life expectancy and so on. There’s not much that relates directly to innovation (though there are several numbers that are peripherally related – like education, productivity per worker hour, and patents), but here’s one that I made tracking patents against gdp per capita. To watch it pull the slider back to ’1984′, then hit play. As near as I can tell, there are two stories there – first that the European countries have started to patent much more extensively in the US since the 1990s, the second is that China is starting to patent more intensively as well. The latter supports a point that Mark & I have made in a couple of research papers – that the stereotype of the Asians economies being more imitative than innovative is rapidly become less accurate.
Despite there not being many innovation stories present in the statistics, this approach to showing stats is certainly innovative. And gapminder has been doing a fantastic job of making available statistics that have previously been relatively inaccessible. In any case,
internet mapping project
Posted by Tim in innovation, networks on 8 June 2009
Kevin Kelly is asking people to map the internet as they see it. He explains the idea here. And you can see all of the maps here.
It’s a pretty interesting project. I asked my postgrad class this semester to do a photo essay illustrating an innovation that wasn’t a new product or service, to try to get them to visualise intangible concepts. Kelly’s project is doing a similar thing. I think it’s a pretty useful exercise.
Here’s my map (apologies for severe graphic deficiencies!):

(there’s a more readable full-size version here)
queen’s birthday links
Posted by Tim in innovation on 8 June 2009
I hope everyone is enjoying doing whatever it is that we’re supposed to do to commemorate the Queen’s birthday. Here are a few things I’ve run across so far today:

The potato gatling gun demonstrates again the difference between invention and innovation. It’s a cool thing to make, but I suspect it’ll be a while before we’re able to buy one ourselves…

Second, Brian Solis has a really nice post on whether or not twitter is a medium for broadcasting or conversing. He correctly points out that either role is ok, and he uses the classification above from Forrester research to point out that not everyone is on the net for a conversation. Even though collaboration is one of the really good things about the internet, it also still serves very effectively as a conduit for information. So broadcasting isn’t necessarily bad. Personally, I’m still not getting much use out of twitter though…

Finally, stay in school!!
business model innovation
Posted by Tim in business models, innovation on 7 June 2009
There was an article in this weekend’s Australian Financial Review reviewing a book about myspace. The reviewer kept stressing that myspace did not invent any new technology, the implication being that the firm was not innovative. So how did it wipe out friendster? The answer, which wasn’t explored by AFR is that myspace developed a better business model.
I keep talking about the importance of business model innovation. The framework that I like to use for this comes from Henry Chesbrough in his books Open Innovation and Open Business Models
. His basic argument is that in an open innovation regime, the firm that develops the best business model is the one that wins. I think this idea is basically correct. In the case of myspace v. friendster, myspace targeted a different segment of the market (kids, plus bands and their fans instead of ‘everyone’), and they had a different value proposition, particularly concerning the openness of the site and the amount of intervention undertaken by the site owners. At the time, both of these changes were innovative – and I believe that myspace won that particular battle due to a superior business model.
Today I stumbled across one of Chesbrough’s own talks on slideshare (what a great resource!), which explains the model beautifully:
The phrase ‘business model’ is kind of like ‘innovation’ or ‘network’ in that it is defined differently by nearly everyone that uses it. An example is the useful blog the Board of Innovation – which posted a nice tool for developing what they call a business model last week. In Chesbrough’s terms, the BoI business model is really a model of revenue generation. But since this is one of the key areas, and one that provides a lot of scope for innovation, the BoI tool is a pretty useful one.
I continue to think that business model innovation is one of the most important ones to focus on, particularly if you are trying to crack a market that is currently dominated by existing firms. Which is why I agree with this criticism of Microsoft’s bing – they’re essentially attacking google using a replica of google’s current business model. This will never work – you need to find a new angle on the business model, just like myspace did.



