Archive for December, 2009
Innovation strategy and the return of the conglomerate
Posted by John in evolving economic entities, innovation, innovation strategy on 3 December 2009
We have been writing a bit about innovation strategy lately. While innovation and strategy are often poorly connected in the literature and in organisations, a real connecting point between the two is taking an evolutionary approach to both. In other words, if we manage both strategy and evolution as evolutionary processes of variation, selection and amplification (Eric Beinhocker’s equivalent word for ‘reproduction’ in the biological model of evolution), then they become very compatible activities. As I have said earlier in a talk to the Brisbane Innovation Network, innovation can become a means for executing strategy as part of a dynamic evolutionary process.
I’ve been thinking more about the consequences of adopting an evolution model for strategy and it has led me to some conclusions about a possible return to the conglomerate business model.
Conglomerates, or highly diversified portfolios of businesses, were once very common in developed economies. GE is probably the world’s best known conglomerate. In Australia, many people would not have heard of Wesfarmers but they own a wide variety of businesses including Coles and Bunnings (retail), insurance, gas distribution and coal mining. Since the Coles acquisition, Wesfarmers has around 90% of its business in retailing and has arguably lost its conglomerate status.
The paradox with Wesfarmers is that the business text books all say that conglomerates are bad and will eventually die out as a relic of bad business practices from the last century. Businesses don’t need to diversify to manage risk because shareholders can do it themselves. What shareholders really want is for businesses to ‘stick to the knitting’ and focus on the core competence of the firm. This is an easy mantra to follow until we look at Wesfarmers success as a diversified portfolio of businesses.
A lot of books were written about the mystical powers of Jack Welch during his tenure as GE’s CEO. It’s a pity that there aren’t books written about Michael Chaney, the CEO of Wesfarmers, who outperformed Welch in terms of returns to sahreholders during the 1990s until 2007, when he resigned to become chairman of the National Australia Bank.
Now Wesfarmers success couldn’t just be a result of chance. They actively managed the portfolio and acquired and sold many businesses over a number of decades. Even with the current ructions in the international economy and the difficulties of turning around the Coles business, Wesfarmers still has a 17% annualized total shareholder return over the past 10 years.
So what makes Wesfarmers work? I’ve got to admit to struggling with this question over the past 10 years of using it as a case study in my strategy lectures on business diversification. However, if we look at the Wesfarmers model through the lens of evolution, things start to make sense. Much has been written on Wesfarmers in the Australian business media but I’d like to focus on three activities that were central to their corporate business process.
The first of these is that there was always a large group of analysts in the corporate office looking at new business opportunities. It really didn’t matter what business they were in, as long as it fitted with the goal of providing sustainable returns to shareholders. This is really a process that generates variety in the business – the first step in evolutionary strategy.
Many of the old, failed conglomerates produced variety in the business portfolio, but Wesfarmers is highly disciplined in the selection phase of the evolutionary model. The benchmark for performance was 18% return on capital employed. If the business unit fell to 16% this was cause for remedial action and 14% could signal the divestment of the business. It is probably the adherence to this selection discipline that has set Wesfarmers apart from other conglomerates that have faded into business history. Finally, Wesfarmers would move capital to growing businesses to support expansion (amplification).
Business fashions are like clothing fashions. They come and go, and then come back again. I’m not saying that the conglomerate is about to make a rapid comeback but there is a lot we can learn from Wesfarmers. The dominant logic in business schools is that only the strongest survive and this comes through focus and effort to build on existing strengths. It’s worth quoting Charles Darwin here:
“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change”
A changing environment demands much from strategy. Out the the top 100 firms publicly listed in the US in 1900, only two continue to survive today. Maybe it’s time to take another look at the conglomerate business model.
Three lessons for adapting to disruptions
Posted by Tim in business models, evolving economic entities on 3 December 2009
How do we fix news? We need an answer because having news reported accurately and quickly is a central part of well-functioning democracy. This makes the problems facing newspapers these critical. Arianna Huffington gave a talk yesterday at the journalism conference put together by the Federal Trade Commission in the US – here is the transcript. She provides a few ideas about how to go about building a better business model for news.
Huffington’s talk split into three parts. In the first, she talked about how the metaphors that people are using for news are all wrong.
So it’s a false metaphor. And if you start from a false premise, you will inevitably be led to a false conclusion. Or, to put it another way, if you chug-a-lug too many of old media’s metaphoric beers, you will end up staggering down the street of illogical thinking and banging into the lamp post of wrong revenue models.
I’ve talked previously about how getting your analogies right can make it easier to figure out how to adapt to disruptive innovations. The big problem here is that people are making analogies for news not to figure out a better business model, but to frame arguments designed to protect their current business models. The first lesson here is that if you have to go to the FTC to lobby for legislation, your business model is well and truly broken.
The second section of the speech discusses how the poor use of analogies has led to poor potential business models. She emphasises the importance of experimenting in this area.
And all across the country, passionate entrepreneurs are doing just that, experimenting with new and creative revenue models. TechDirt.com is monetizing its engaged and highly informed community by turning them into focus-groups-for-hire. ProPublica is using a not-for-profit model to produce impact investigative journalism. And there are many different powerful local journalism models, including Voice of San Diego, which supports its award-winning local journalism with a combination of advertising and public radio-style contributions from foundations and users.
The new paths to success are still being charted — and much remains uncertain. But this much is clear: we can’t use an analog map and expect to find our way in a digital word.
Again, this is something we’ve talked about here. The key to innovation is experimentation. Jeff Jarvis and the CUNY Graduate School of Journalism have put together a list of twenty three ways that news organisations can generate revenue. The way to innovate out of the news business model problem is to experiment, find the things that work, and do more of them. This isn’t a very attractive model if you’re a gigantic oligopolist, so I guess I can see why lobbying the FTC seems like a better idea. Even so, that isn’t going to work. You have to try things.
Huffington concludes by talking about new models for generating news. Again, the key here is experimenting. Different combinations of content will support different revenue generation models. The thing that I particularly like about Huffington’s talk is that she has found a business model that works, but she doesn’t tell everyone that they must follow the same model. This is smart. We need to find multiple business models for news.
So the three lessons here for adapting to disruptive innovations:
- Get your analogies right – finding the right analogy can make it easier to adapt to an uncertain future.
- Experiment! Try different combinations of content and revenue generation, see which ones work, and do more of those things.
- There is not just one right solution – there are likely to be many.
These ideas aren’t just important for journalism, they apply to everyone that is facing a turbulent business environment. And who isn’t these days?
(All of our discussions of news business models are indexed here.)
adapting to disruptive change
Posted by Tim in evolving economic entities, innovation strategy, time on 2 December 2009
Yesterday I wrote about how Western Union decided not to invest in telephone technology back in 1880. After posting, I sent this off over twitter:
An #innovation lesson from the story of Western Union & the telephone http://ow.ly/HBvt
About an hour later, that post got retweeted:
Good story, good lesson: RT @timkastelle: An #innovation lesson from the story of Western Union & the telephone http://ow.ly/HBvt
The author of that tweet? @WesternUnion! And that got me thinking about a couple of things. The first is that even though not investing in telephones back in 1880 probably wasn’t the smartest move, WU is still around, which is actually quite an accomplishment – none of the other 12 companies listed in the first Dow Jones Industrial Average are. How did they manage that?
As my friend Mike pointed out, they got at least a little bit better at forecasting what was coming. Probably more importantly, they have been an innovative firm right from the start. They produced the first stock ticker in 1869, the first consumer charge card in 1914, the first commercial satellite in 1974, and the first disposable prepaid phone card in 1993. One way to respond to disruptive change is to introduce plenty of potentially disruptive ideas yourself.
Another is to figure out ways to reinvent your business model. Western Union went out of the telegraph business in 2006. They’re still around because they are now the dominant firm in international money transfer – something they introduced as a secondary business line back in the 19th century.
This story is interesting. To stick around, you have to be able to adapt to changing environments. Sometimes, you can drive the change yourself, but other times change is thrust upon you. Innovation is essential to dealing with both situations.
The second thing that struck me about that retweet is that it is pretty cool that it happened at all. It means that WU is monitoring twitter, that they have a real person responding to what comes across the line, and that they’re not scared to pass along stories that might not be entirely positive. All of these are things that firms need to be doing these days. The fact that Western Union is on top of this now is encouraging. Maybe it will help them figure out how to deal with the next disruption that they’ll face, like money transfer through mobile phones…
Here’s a nice 5 minute talk from Matt Milan that illustrates some of these points – key quote ‘He who maintains the quickest rate of change survives’:
The New Strategy – Toronto Ignite Version from Matthew Milan on Vimeo.
(Thanks to Jorge Barba for the original link to this video – check out his blog, it’s a good one!)
Seeing what’s coming
Posted by Tim in innovation strategy, replication, time on 2 December 2009
When Alexander Graham Bell developed the telephone, he offered to sell the patent to Western Union. He knew that getting the idea to spread was the hardest part, and he figured that a big firm that was already in the communications industry would be better equipped to get the idea out there. This was part of the minutes from the Western Union board meeting that decided the telephone had no future:
Bell’s instrument uses nothing but the voice, which cannot be captured in concrete form…. We leave it to you to judge whether any sensible man would transact his affairs by such a means of communications. In conclusion the committee feels that it must advise against any investment whatever in Bell’s scheme.
I hear similar things all the time from firms. We often get so caught up with what is good about what we’re currently doing that we fail to see any value at all in alternatives. Consequently, we miss out. Or, worse, we are made irrelevant by someone else.
What threats (or opportunities!) are you missing right now for the same reason?
David Lazer on the State of Complex Network Analysis
Posted by Tim in book riffs, innovation, networks on 1 December 2009
Here is David Lazer’s keynote talk at the Political Networks 2009 Conference that took place recently (James Fowler’s talk is also worth watching):
David Lazer at Political Networks 2009 from David Lazer on Vimeo.
Lazer shows examples from a lot of state-of-the-art network research, mostly centred around politics. It gives you a pretty good idea of what sorts of things are possible. There are examples of analysis of interaction networks with geography added in, people interacting through institutions, and network evolution over time – and most of them are working with mind-boggling big datasets.
These leads to some questions about using network analysis to study innovation:
- What can we learn about innovation from some of these colossal data sets?
- Are there new questions that we can ask about the innovation process using these tools?
- How do network dynamics contribute to the evolution of innovation processes?
- What can network analysis tell us about causality when we study innovation?
John and I and our research group are looking at these questions right now – it’s definitely an exciting area to be in right now. Network Analysis I think is still the best way to track communication patterns – the challenge is to link these to actions and outcomes. What do you think?



