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Archive for July, 2011

Little Innovations Matter!

Here’s a question for you.

What’s better…. a lot of little innovations or one big innovation? If we had to choose, would it better to have an economy made up of a lot of firms trying to make small improvements to their business or do we want a game-changer like Apple or Google?

The big innovations are glamourous and they become part of business folklore. Governments then spend a lot of effort trying to replicate the success of these companies by supporting businesses that might turn into the next Microsoft, GSK or Samsung. The trouble is that we need to go through a veritable haystack of businesses to eventually get these needles that grow from nothing to become global leaders in their industry.

In hindsight we can say that Apple was always going to become a great business but hindsight is a misleading science. Someone who pointed to two strange kids (Jobs and Wozniak) at the Homebrew Club for computing enthusiasts in the 1970s saying that this is the beginning of one of the most influential businesses of the early 21st century would be laughed at. Pity we can’t put a bet on a horse at the finish of the race.

But what about the little innovations that go unnoticed in typical businesses around town? These are often experiments in products, supply chains or production processes that can be the beginning of new business models. While they don’t attract the attention of the big innovations, they are extremely valuable and when many businesses start accumulating innovations we can see a new growth industry appear that creates wealth for those businesses and other supporting industries in the region.

Personally, I love the little innovations where a small business has found an ingenious way to tackle a problem or position themselves differently in the market place. Why? Because most businesses in any region employ less than 100 people. Learning from these firms and then sharing this learning with other small businesses is a great way to encourage innovation.

Last week we launched the Brisbane Innovation Scorecard and a major part of the report was the survey that showed that 65% of a random sample of 372 Brisbane organizations had introduced some form of innovation in the past three years. Like any city, the majority of these organisations were small businesses. The scorecard launch itself was a celebration of innovation, which attracted a lot of attention from both businesses and goverment in the Brisbane region. The following YouTube video is a nice little summary of the launch.

Most innovation awards focus on the high tech and although there was one business in the featured group of companies that is genuinely high tech, the others were in industries such as construction, hospitality, not for profit and mining that are usually overlooked when we think about innovation. In all cases they had innovated to improve critical areas of the business. Mining companies with step changes in processing technology, restauranteurs with novel approaches to organising food supplies and safety training packages for electrical contractors were all featured. Looking at these successes enables other managers to think about changes that could be made to their own businesses. The following link is a radio interview that I did late last week talking about these case studies.

ABC radio interview with John Steen on Brisbane Innovation Scorecard

For those of you who can make it to Brisbane on Tuesday 23rd of August, Tim and I will be running a masterclass on successfully managing innovation. Thanks to support from Enterprise Connect, there is no charge for the workshop. We will start at 7:30am with a keynote talk over breakfast and conclude at midday. The masterclass will be held at the UQ Business School city facility at Central Plaza 1 on the corner of Creek and Queen Streets. Seats are limited so you will need to reserve your seat early. Please register your interest with an email to d.burke@business.uq.edu.au

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Bad Filtering Kills Businesses

If your business model is based on information, and whose isn’t these days, then you need to be able to aggregate, filter and connect. While reflecting on the death of Borders Books, I thought of three stories of filtering in retail.

First Story: Tower Records

In the mid-80s, I went in to the Tower Records in Tacoma, looking for Stop Pretending, the new record by the Pandoras. I figured my odds of finding it were high, since there was a big promo display for the record up on the wall.

I went over to the “Rock – Misc P” and flicked through the records. No luck.

I went up to the counter and asked the clerk if they had it. He said no – they’d gotten one copy, and another guy that worked at Tower had bought it. I asked them why they had the display on the wall, and he told me that the guy that bought the record really liked it, so he made the display.

Then I asked if another copy was coming in. No. Why? Because for records from independent labels, the buying policy was to send one copy to each store. If they needed more than one copy, then it had to be special ordered.

There are five forms of filtering, and this is an example heuristic filtering.

Heuristic filtering is rules-based, and this is a great example of a dumb mechanical process. It’s dumb because there’s no learning (“hey, people in Tacoma seem to like the Pandoras, send them more copies of the record”).

This approach worked fine as long as Tower was still the biggest aggregator around. The boycott of Tower that I started in response to this didn’t really seem to hurt them, even though I bought a LOT of records back then.

However, as soon as a bigger aggregator came along – various internet-based options – the Tower business model was toast.

People say that the internet killed Tower Records, but I think it was killed by bad filtering.

Second Story: Borders Books

In the mid-90s, I bought Science as a Process by David Hull, which became one of my all-time favourite non-fiction books. I bought it at the Borders in Westwood, which at the time had a superb science section. Back then, buying was decentralized to each store. So the Westwood Borders, just down the road from UCLA, had a significantly different selection from the Studio City Borders, and every other Borders in LA at the time.

This was expert filtering. Each buyer knew the kind of people that were shopping in his or her store, and they stocked books appropriate to that market.

Unlike Barnes & Noble, which appeared to use heuristics to stock their stores, each Borders was unique.

When Borders came to Australia and New Zealand around 2000, they had individual store buyers then too, so each store was still unique.

After the chain got sold, the individual buyers disappeared – replaced by a central buyer. This was done in response to the threat of online booksellers. The only way to improve efficiency was to cut down on staffing costs.

So Borders went to dumb heuristic filtering.

And now they’re gone too – also killed by bad filtering.

Third Story: Pulp Fiction Bookshop

I while ago I was browsing through the shelves at Pulp Fiction Bookshop here in Brisbane. They specialize in Science Fiction, Fantasy and Mysteries. Their selection in these areas is among the best I’ve ever seen.

A guy walked into the shop and went straight up to the counter. He said “My wife really likes Iain Rankin and Donna Leone. I want to get her a birthday present – is there a similar author that you can recommend?” The owner of the shop said “Yes, there’s a South African author (whose name I didn’t catch) that’s writing really good mysteries, but no one has heard of him (or her) yet. Try that.” The guy bought two books by that author, and left, looking pretty happy.

That’s expert filtering – both in terms of stocking the store and in terms of helping customers.

Even though people can buy books on the internet, and the Australian dollar is really strong, and the parallel importing laws here making it nearly impossible to sell books successfully, Pulp Fiction seems to be doing pretty well.

They’re doing well, because they filter well.

Conclusions

Simply calling these filtering problems is probably too simplistic. And yet, bad filtering definitely played a role in the death of Tower and Borders. Both of them were pretty good at aggregating. Borders was pretty good at using expert filtering to connect people with books they might like in-store, while Tower was less consistent in this area. For a while, Borders was pretty good at filtering, and Tower was always fairly bad at it.

The problems started when the internet killed their aggregation advantages. This caused Borders to do away with the one thing that actually made them distinctive – their expert filtering. Expert filtering is something that Tower never had.

Neither store ever was able to connect people up with products in the way that Pulp Fiction does. This type of expert filtering & connecting is better even than the algorithmic filtering you get at Amazon or iTunes.

The problem is that it doesn’t scale. So it’s hard to have a Borders-sized bookshop with great expert filtering. It’s easier if you specialize in something, as Pulp Fiction does.

To succeed in an information-based business, you must be good at aggregating, filtering and connecting information. And you have to be able to do all three. The stories of Tower and Borders show you how bad filtering can kill a business.

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Ideas Are Something You Do

Here is today’s exercise in connecting up ideas. First off, there’s this summary of the TEDGlobal conference from Hugh MacLeod’s daily newsletter:

Then, there’s this quote from Seth Godin at the 99% Conference:

What you do for a living is not be creative, what you do for a living is ship.

Godin expands on that thought in this presentation as well – where he recommends “thrashing at the beginning” of a project so that you can deliver (“ship”) on time.

Again, the value is not in the idea, it’s in shipping something that’s come from the idea.

Finally, Rowan Simpson wrote a good post with questions that firms who want investment money from him should think through. He says:

The best thing you can do to stand out from the crowd is to point me at a product that I can use and, even better, that you are already selling. It doesn’t have to be polished or even finished, as long as you have planned for the work required to turn it into something that is ready to be used in anger.
Nothing impresses potential investors like scrappy execution. Most people don’t get that far.

This is part of why it’s hard to measure innovation. If ideas are something you have, then it’s easy. We can measure patents, or suggestions, or some other measure of our stock of ideas.

Measuring flow is harder – but idea flow is what determines innovation success. To measure innovation we need to track ideas that have been executed. And, even better, value created through this execution.

Ideas are something you do.

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Carmageddon – Change is Hard, Except When It’s Not

The world failed to end over the weekend. In Los Angeles, at least, this was a bit surprising, as there were many dire predictions made about the impact of closing down the 405 Freeway for a weekend of construction.

Many of the key issues are summarised in this remix from Downfall (which is funny, but NSFW, and probably not politically correct). There are also more straightforward discussions of the event dubbed “Carmageddon” on the LA Times website.

Even on weekends, the 405 carries a staggering amount of traffic, so it stands to reason that shutting it completely would have a major cascading effect on traffic throughout the rest of LA.

And yet, it didn’t. Why?

Because people changed their behaviour for the weekend. They stayed home, or walked place, or travelled in the opposite direction of where the traffic was supposed to be.

In the end, Carmageddon was a complete non-event.

This is actually the second time that this has happened in LA. The first time, it was supposed to be even worse. That was during the 1984 Olympic Games. Most of the events took place around the LA Coliseum, which is right next to downtown. Traffic from people going to see the games was supposed to shut down the entire city – this time for two weeks.

The fact that this didn’t happened has been referred to as the “LA Traffic Miracle“.

Why were the Olympic weeks actually one of the smoothest traffic periods in memory? Because people changed their behaviour:

But The Times noted back in 1985 that it wasn’t exactly a miracle: ” [It was] no fluke but resulted to a large degree from employer policies during the Games (23% of major employers surveyed used staggered shifts; 33% permitted flextime).”

In both cases, the prediction that was actually being made was:

This event will be catastrophic, if people act as they normally do.

The problem is that no one ever says the second part out lout – it’s just assumed.

We run into this problem a lot when innovating. We introduce a new idea, and people resist it, because it will only work if they change their behaviour. This is a key innovation challenge – how can we make the behaviour change easier?

Scaring people is one method, as they did with Carmageddon and the 1984 Olympics.

However, this approach often only has short-term success.

The other approach that works is to create clear value for people with your innovation.

Peoples’ capacity to effect large-scale change is often surprising. Major changes in behaviour are often shocking, because we always assume that change is hard. However, if you create value for people with innovation, you can make it easier for them to change.

Once again, change will occur, and it won’t be the end of the world.

(photo from the LA Times)

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Anything You Want by Derek Sivers – “Experiment. Go!”

Experimenting is the key to innovation success.

The new book Anything You Want by Derek Sivers is worth a read (there’s tons of information about the book, and some great videos here). The book tells lessons that Sivers learned while running his website CDBaby. My first thought in reading the experiences of one person is “your mileage my vary” – but Sivers makes some excellent points that do generalise, including a couple about experimenting.

One is that whatever business model you have is simply one option of many possible ones.

He tells the story of the voice coach that he had when he was singing in a band. He’d have Sivers sing a song an octave higher, then an octave lower, then fast, slow, like Tom Waits, etc. After doing all of that there was always a choice about the best way to sing each song.

It’s the same for business models. Here is how Sivers puts it:

I’m taking an entrepreneurship class now. I’ve never studied business before.

We analyzed a business plan for a mail-order pantyhose company. Like all business plans, it proposed only one plan.

After reading the whole thing, I felt like saying things my old voice teacher would have said:

  • “OK, make a plan that requires only $1000. Go!”
  • “Now make a plan for ten times as many customers. Go!”
  • “Now do it without a website. Go!”
  • “Now make all your initial assumptions wrong, and have it work anyway. Go!”
  • “Now show how you would franchise it. Go!”

You can’t pretend there’s only way to do it. Your first idea is just one of many options. No business goes as planned, so make ten radically different plans.

This is good advice for business plans, and it’s good advice for implementing any new idea.

The more ways you work out how an idea might be executed, the more likely it is that you’ll stumble upon a good plan once your idea hits reality.

Remember – every part of a business model is actually a hypothesis. You should figure out how to test each part.

Here’s another bit from the book:

If it’s not a hit, switch from Derek Sivers on Vimeo.

Watch the whole thing, but here’s the key quote:

We’ve all heard about the importance of persistence, but I had misunderstood.

Success comes from persistently improving and inventing, not from persistently doing what’s not working.

We all have lots of ideas, creations and projects. When you present one to the world, and it’s not a hit, don’t keep pushing it as is. Instead, get back to improving and inventing.

Innovation is about experimenting. This story from Sivers is a story about experimenting – keep trying things to improve them. You show persistence with the experiments, not just by sticking with an idea that’s not working.

“Experiment. Go!”

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Some ‘Deep Thought’ on The Global Innovation Index

There’s been a fair bit of chatter on the release of the global innovation index. It’s an impressive composite of many indicators of innovation and it thows out many interesting lists. According to the report, Switzerland, Sweden and Singapore are the most innovative countries and the Ivory Coast, Nigeria and China are the most efficient innovators (Braden Kelley at Blogging Innovation has been doing a good job of reporting on the scores).

Measuring innovation is very difficult and there is a classic tradeoff between scope and detail. The broader we want the results to be, the more we lose detail. My main issue with the Global Innovation Index is how much detail we need to lose to obtain a global ranking. In the blogosphere, I’m sure most people will focus on the lists so I’d like to spend a bit of time considering the data.

The general approach with the GII is that innovation has inputs and outputs and we need to get measurements for both sides of the ledger, which is a sound starting point. A summary graphic of the composite measures for inputs and outputs is in the report (see below).

Global Innovation Indedx Measures

As an innovation researcher, I immediately focussed my attention on the output side and the first thing that becomes apparent is that the index is skewed towards scientific outputs as a proxy for innovation. GDP growth is also used as a proxy for knowdledge impact and outward foreign direct investment is used as a proxy for knowledge diffusion. Given that innovation is supposed to be the implementation of a significantly improved good, service or process, I’m left wondering how well this composite really tracks innovation? I won’t say too much more but we know that less than half of innovations in most industries are patented and many firms report innovations without reporting R&D. According to a 2010 OECD report, the number of firms in Australia that report innovation is nearly twice the number of those those that report R&D. Many service industries are not R&D instensive and they don’t produce many patents either, but services and service innovation is a vital part of developed economies.

This is where the scope of the index starts to make things confusing. Using the website, I could find the strengths and weaknesses of Australia but does a lower proportion of exports per GDP unit really mean a nation is less innovative? Do many joint ventures and alliances make a nation more innovative? Remember, that in Australia many of these JVs are associated with the resources sector.

The other thing that strikes me is how much this is biased towards measures that are suitable for developed nations. I’ve just finished supervising a project that used some excellent survey data to look at innovation in Vietnamese firms. Now, these companies do report significantly improved goods and services but very few of these show up with patents or trademarks. Looking at the Global Innovation ranking of 51 tells me nothing about innovation in Vietnam. It does tell me that there aren’t many journal articles and patents coming out of Vietnam and that the economy is growing quickly but that’s not very interesting.

The report attempts to measure another dimension of innovative outputs in the creative industries but this is where measurement gets really tough (and the authors acknowlwedge this). I have no objection to experimenting with measures but the risk in composite indices is that we look at the final number and forget the assumptions that are going on behind the headline figures. Motion pictures as a measure of creative output? Hmmm…. maybe. Newspaper circulation? Good luck with that!

After reading the report, the main question that I had was “what is the question that this report answers?”. Does it really help to have an index of all of these nations? Will it help to encourage innovation? Will it help governments? It’s a bit like Douglas Adams’s answer to life the universe and everything. Following from Tim’s creative use of Orson Welles, here’s the segement from the movie.

Like the Magratheans, in an effort to reduce the complexity and idiosyncracy of innovation to a simple number, we have generated an answer that actually doesn’t get us very far in being more innovative.

Portugal scores 42 on the innovation index. Lucky Portugal!

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Innovation Must Create Value, not Novelty

Is it possible to be too innovative?

Helen Walters points to an interesting post by Jens Martin Skibsted and Rasmus Bech Hansen called Over-Innovation Makes U.S. Firms Suck At Sustainability, which argues that it is.

They argue that the high levels of US carbon emissions are due to too much innovation:

The heart of the problem is that American brands push more and more products on the consumer without mechanisms for re-usage. With ever-shortening product life cycles, the problem is only getting worse.

Our experience tells us that it is exactly because American companies are so amazingly innovative, entrepreneurial, and intensely competitive that they can’t find ways to deal with the global challenges. Finding sustainable solutions isn’t about discovering new, ever-more disruptive ideas. It requires the opposite, something very un-American: standardization, slowness, and centralization. To most, more ideas are always better. But in this case, the more green solutions we have, the less effective and efficient processes become.

Reading the whole article is worthwhile, so you can make your own opinion. As for me, I’m with Enrique Garibay, who tweeted this in response:

This was followed up by bbhor, who said:

Both are correct.

Here’s the thing: innovation is executing new ideas to create value, it’s not just making more stuff. It’s not about about ideas. It’s not about novelty.

Skibsted and Hansen have an example of kind of thinking that can support sustainability:

In theory, you can grow in two ways: You can produce more, or you can add extra value to what you already produce. The latter is the way toward sustainability.

Take Starbucks: Despite the company’s impressive growth, it has hardly increased the amount of coffee beans the world consumes. Instead, it has grown by finding numerous clever ways to create value in all parts of the value chain — everything from interior design, product innovation, marketing, and services. More American brands must learn that they can minimize the consumption of goods but increase total consumption at the same time.

All of those value creation strategies that they are talking about are innovations.

The problem isn’t too much innovation – it’s bad innovation. Innovation that is divorced from a strong focus on creating genuine value is bad inovation.

Umair Haque’s great blog consistently tries to address this issue. Innovation is no good if it doesn’t create deep value. Here’s what he says in his latest post:

The pursuit of more, bigger, faster, cheaper, nastier too often seems to demand putting what, why, and who we love at the end of the list, the underworld of the inbox, the bottom of the heap. That’s a recipe for stagnation, whether for people, communities, cities, countries, or the globe. But the converse might just hold, too: if nations and corporations want to punch past the glass ceiling of mere opulence, to what I call eudaimonic prosperity — lives that are meaningfully well lived — well, then people might just have to begin by making if not radically, then at least marginally more meaningful choices themselves.

The problem isn’t over-innovation – it’s under-innovation in terms of creating value. To be successful, innovation must support strategy. To be sustainable, innovation must create value.

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Learning Innovation from Others

I was in a meeting with a CEO the other day who is confronting the possibility that what sustained the business for the last few decades is probably not going to deliver growth for the future. Tim and I have been working with him for over a year and we both rate him very highly as a manager and strategist. What impressed me in his thinking about the future of the business was how willing he was to look outside his industry for examples of innovation and business models.

Not only was he looking for new ideas on how to respond to emerging competitive threats, he also wanted business analogies so he could explain to his senior management team where he wanted to take the company. Analogies are powerful tools for thinking and learning. It’s easy to dimiss an idea because it comes from a different context but looking outside your industry is one of the best ways to break out of the dominant logic that constrains so many organizations.

Last year we launched the Brisbane Innovation Scorecard in collaboration with Brisbane Marketing, Brisbane Marketing, Deloitte and Queensland Government. The main idea of the project was that we would track the innovation performance of the Brisbane econonmy. Almost as an afterthought, we included case studies of firms that were using innovation to compete in industries where we don’t usually look for innovation. These included meat processing, boat building and heavy engineering. All of these examples had lessons that I continued to use in the classroom throughout the year.

I wasn’t the only one who found valuable insights in these cases and the feedback from many people was that the cases helped them to see how they could be innovative in their business, even though they were often dismissed as being in a ‘low-tech’ area. Most of the cases showed that the division between high-tech and low-tech was meaningless with the manufacturing and food processing businesses developing several smart teachnologies to improve the final product.

The Brisbane Innovation Scorecard 2011 will be launched on the 21st of July and tickets are still available. We use a survey developed at Cambridge University as part of a transnational innovation study of the UK, Australia and New Zealand to measure the innovation performance of the Brisbane business community but the real stars of the launch are the case studies. These organizations show that innovation matters to all organizations and is essential for meeting the challenges of the current business environment.

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How Can We Break Out of Our Thinking Ruts?

Nancy and I just got back from an excellent trip to Italy. We each had presentations at different events there, and we also had a chance to take some time to see the sights. One of the things that we got to see in Rome was the Colosseum. Here’s a shot of us while we were there:

One of things that is really striking about the Colosseum is how much it looks like modern sports stadiums. Building on ideas from naturally occurring amphitheatres, which were then used to make small performance venues, the Romans solved a number of problems in stadium construction in ways that we’ve continued to use for 2000 years now.

How can we get 50,000 people close enough to see human-scale action? The Colosseum solves this – steep tiers in a round stadium.

How can we get these people in and out of the stadium efficiently? Multiple entrances leading to numbered seats in sections.

How do we generate the maximum amount of revenue from wealthy patrons? Luxury boxes – something that modern stadium builders forgot until the 1990s.

What kind of surface should we use? The Colosseum invented the ancient equivalent of astroturf – artificially constructed surfaces meant to replicate a natural playing field. You can also see behind us that underneath this surface they built the locker rooms and other facilities needed to support events in the stadium.

Remarkably, the Colosseum really isn’t that different from the places we go these days to see sporting events.

In many respects, stadium building has been pretty innovation free for the past two millenia.

I wonder if we build stadiums that look like the Colosseum because the Romans solved the problems of stadium building perfectly, or because we’re stuck in a rut in the way we think that stadiums should be built. Jeffrey Phillips makes a point about how we can stuck in these ruts (the whole post is worth reading):

Most businesses are about identifying a few important patterns, determining that the patterns are viable and sustainable, and reducing the patterns to an algorithm which can be improved and made more efficient.

If you consider most large businesses today, they work to specific patterns. Within an industry, the vast majority of competitors in an industry have the same business models and make money in the same ways. The patterns are repeated – the same customer needs are met by a range of competitors using many of the same channels, offerings and features. Over time the patterns and algorithms become more important than the market, which build walls and silos which dictate how businesses provide services to customers. These patterns and algorithms create blind spots. Businesses forget that patterns aren’t permanent, and build monolithic structures to provide ever more efficient pattern matching solutions.

Is that where we are in stadium building? It might be. Jeffrey’s post is building on another excellent post by James Gardner, thinking about innovation in classical music. He watched a string quartet perform a modern composition, which initially he didn’t like. Then he started to think about it more deeply, and realised that this is often the way that people respond to innovation.

There’s a paradox here – how do we avoid the ruts that pattern recognition and reinforcement can lead to? On the one hand, we have to know the subject intimately to have enough expertise to break out of the box. Here is how Gardner describes it:

They start playing. An original, world premiere original composition.
It is modern. It is chaos. It is terrible.
Except, it isn’t so terrible, once you begin to listen. There is order, but it is hidden away under the discords. There is harmony, but it isn’t the harmony you expect, so you don’t hear it.
In particular, there is extraordinary skill in the musicians. The whole thing sounds like a mess, but every bow is going the same direction. The timing of each note is perfect. The silences between the notes precise.

The innovation wouldn’t be possible without the technical skill. The paradox, however, is how expertise can often also prevent us from using our skill to find new ways. Glenn Wiebe makes this point nicely with a quote from the Heath Brothers in Made to Stick:

Your conversations with others in the field are peppered with catch phrases and jargon that are foreign to the uninitiated. When it’s time to accomplish a task — open a store, build a house, sell insurance — those in the know get it done the way it has always been done, stifling innovation as they barrel along the well-worn path.

How can we get around this problem?

The first step is to be aware of it. The second is to find ways to identify these basic assumptions. Finally, we then need to discover ways to work around them.

One way to do this is to find new angles from which we view the problems that we’re trying to solve. John Hagel and John Seely Brown provide a great example of doing in this an article addressing how to design work spaces more effectively. They suggest that if you focus on increasing flow, you will end up making spaces that are radically different. The shift in focus to flow, instead of efficiency is the key to innovation:

…we might apply a key principle of nature’s “constructal” design as discovered by Duke University engineers and authors of “Design with Constructal Theory”, Adrian Bejan and Sylvie Lorente. In order to survive, all systems must evolve by providing greater and greater access to the currents that flow through them. This applies to all physical, biological and social systems that survive and thrive. Whether we are talking about river basins, trees, lung design or our cities, it turns out they all obey this constructal law.

This suggests that maximising flows within and across workspaces should be a key design principle. But let’s take that one step forward. None of the systems just described are static; they are constantly evolving. This suggests another design principle: how to design for evolution rather than creating a static design optimising for the present. What would it mean to design the systems we work in to continually evolve our ability to experience more and more flow, especially the flow of people and ideas?

What kind of stadium would we get if it were designed for flow? I don’t know, but I bet that it might be something that looks quite a bit different from the Colosseum (finally!).

Thinking ruts are dangerous – they make us vulnerable to radical innovations. If you want to break out of these ruts, these are the kinds of questions to start thinking about:

What are the basic assumptions in your field – the patterns that you are trained to reproduce? What happens if you use your expertise to create something different, instead of recreating what you’ve always done? What would your product or service look like if it were designed to maximise flow?

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Our Job is to Invent the Future, revisited

If we’re trying to innovate, our job is to invent the future. That’s why I was struck by this quote from Ray Kurzweil from a few years ago:

I’m an inventor, and I started looking at long-term trends because an invention has to make sense in the world in which it was finished, not the world in which it started.

This short quote hits on several important points:

  • We have to be thinking about the future because innovation always takes much longer than we expect it to: innovation is a three part process – idea generation, idea selection and execution, and idea diffusion. In particular, idea execution can often take a (very!) long time, as can idea diffusion.
  • Innovation requires vision: the first part of the process, idea generation, requires vision. While there is often an overemphasis on ideation, innovation does always start with a great idea.

  • We need a methodology for thinking about the future: one way or another, we need to think about where the world is heading. There are many ways to do this. We can make sure that in addition to tending to our core business, we also spend some time finding out what is going on out on the edges. We can use collaborative methods, as outlined in The Open Foresighting project (that link is to Venessa Miemis’ blog – go there and scroll down to the Futures Thinking links in the right column for more great resources in this area). We can use scenario planning – here is a recent version discussed on The Long Now Blog, another good resource. We can extrapolate based on what’s going on today.

In reality, we probably need to undertake a combination of all of these techniques. And just as importantly, we have to combine thinking about the future with a culture of experimentation. It’s experimenting that ensures that we are finding ideas that will actually work.

Our job is to invent the future, and to do that, first we have to formulate a good idea of what the future should be.

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